In previous years I have focused on what other people think will be the top cyber risks for next year. This year I decided to come up with my own list based on professional work in this space, attending seminars, and watching webinars. Much of the future speculation appears to have a marketing angle, but that doesn’t change the actual risk or make anyone wrong to talk about the issues; it just gives professionals a greater interest in specific subject matter. Based on similar experiences, my focus here is deliberately narrow, concentrating on two areas I expect to matter more in 2026.
Shadow AI will become a much higher and growing risk
The rapid adoption of AI tools inside businesses will continue to expand a new class of unmanaged risk. Employees are using public and semi-public AI systems to draft documents, analyse data, and make decisions without visibility, guidance, or approval. In many cases, sensitive information, internal context, or intellectual property is being shared with external systems by default. Although the use of Shadow AI is rarely malicious, I expect it to become more widespread while remaining largely invisible to security teams. I also expect the cumulative risk from unsanctioned AI use to exceed that of many Shadow IT problems because of the scale, speed, and lack of transparency.
- AI tools are already embedded in everyday work – use of AI to draft, summarise, analyse, or make decisions is normal behaviour, not experimentation. This continues to push usage outside of formal approval processes.
- Security teams cannot keep pace with adoption – AI tools appear faster than policies, reviews, or risk assessments can be written or enforced.
- Consumer AI tools outperform approved enterprise tools – staff will default to what works best and fastest, regardless of policy or guidance.
- Data sharing is implicit, not explicit – AI tools retain prompts, context, or outputs by default and users rarely understand where the data is stored and how it could be used.
- AI usage is more difficult to detect – Shadow AI does not behave like traditional Shadow IT and it can leave minimal network or endpoint footprint.
- Business pressure rewards speed over control – productivity gains from AI will be expected and staff will often bypass any controls that slow down its usage.
Data exfiltration will become more prevalent than ransomware
I expect to see a shift from system-locking ransomware to pure data exfiltration. Encrypting entire environments is inefficient, noisy, and increasingly well-defended against. It is far simpler for attackers to breach a network, quietly extract valuable data, and apply pressure through the threat of public release. This approach will bypass many ransomware controls and directly target reputational damage, regulatory exposure, loss of customer trust, and financial impact.
- Network-wide encryption is noisy and slow – it triggers alerts, response plans, backups, and law enforcement involvement.
- Backup and recovery capabilities have improved – ransomware encryption alone doesn’t guarantee payment.
- Exfiltration is harder to detect than encryption – data theft can be gradual, selective, and disguised as normal traffic.
- Stolen data creates multiple monetisation options – attackers can extort, sell, reuse, or leak data in stages.
- Reputational damage is harder to recover from than downtime – public exposure of sensitive data causes lasting harm beyond technical recovery.
- Regulatory penalties amplify attacker leverage – breach notification laws and fines make data exposure more costly than service disruption.
- Attackers can pressure businesses without destroying systems – this reduces operational risk for criminals, lowers barriers to entry, and opens up a subscription model for cybercrime.
- Cloud and Software as a Service (SaaS) architectures centralise valuable data – stealing data is easier than encrypting distributed environments.
Concluding thoughts
These two reflect the same underlying shift:
- Data is the primary asset
- Speed and invisibility beat disruption
- Human behaviour matters more than technical exploits
Many other cyber risks will continue to evolve through 2026 and none of these should be ignored. These two risks represent a significant shift where risk accumulates the fastest and with the least visibility. Focusing on these areas should not involve ignoring or sidelining other risks, but recognising AI governance, privacy, and human behaviour could matter the most.
